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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+7.62vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+3.71vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.60+3.97vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+2.47vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.07+3.65vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.70+0.51vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.81+6.20vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-0.62vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+3.54vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-3.88vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.85-1.30vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University4.51-7.74vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia3.01-4.22vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.99-1.67vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.38-3.73vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.04-3.44vs Predicted
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17William and Mary1.37-2.41vs Predicted
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18Monmouth University0.98-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.62University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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6.97SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.65Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.51Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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13.2Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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12.54Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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6.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.7Cornell University2.850.0%1st Place
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4.26Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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8.78University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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12.33Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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11.27George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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12.56Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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14.59William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
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15.35Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Harry Scott | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 9.4% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Brady Stagg | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 11.5% |
| Gary Herring | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 6.4% |
| Austen Anderson | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Sydney Bolger | 18.9% | 17.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| John Croll | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 7.0% |
| Ian Connors | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 2.5% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 7.9% |
| Bill Parker | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 20.9% | 23.9% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 17.2% | 38.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.