Race 1A

longfellow-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ryan Mullins 17.3% 15.5% 14.2% 14.5% 11.3% 9.2% 6.9% 4.9% 3.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Christopher Edwards 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 3.5% 4.7% 5.7% 7.4% 8.0% 9.4% 13.7% 20.6% 19.4%
Alden Winder 3.8% 3.1% 3.7% 4.4% 5.0% 6.7% 6.2% 9.7% 10.6% 14.2% 18.6% 14.0%
Eric Schwarm 5.8% 7.1% 8.7% 9.9% 9.3% 10.1% 11.3% 9.7% 11.3% 8.4% 5.7% 2.7%
Jeff Goodrich 8.8% 10.2% 10.1% 10.1% 10.5% 11.2% 9.1% 10.3% 7.6% 6.4% 4.2% 1.5%
Owen Richardson 5.9% 5.9% 6.9% 7.5% 8.2% 8.5% 10.1% 11.7% 10.7% 11.2% 9.2% 4.2%
Daniel Perkins 19.9% 18.4% 14.2% 12.7% 10.5% 8.6% 7.0% 4.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1%
Colin Santangelo 11.3% 11.1% 12.0% 8.8% 10.3% 10.1% 10.8% 8.3% 7.8% 4.9% 3.2% 1.4%
Tevis Nichols 4.5% 4.5% 7.2% 7.5% 8.1% 9.4% 10.7% 10.6% 11.2% 11.9% 9.5% 4.9%
Connor Aswad 14.8% 14.2% 13.1% 12.3% 12.6% 8.8% 9.3% 6.5% 4.3% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Charles Field 4.5% 5.6% 5.6% 6.1% 7.0% 9.2% 9.3% 10.6% 13.4% 11.5% 11.2% 6.0%
Emerson Krock 1.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 5.6% 7.7% 11.0% 15.9% 45.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.