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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.70vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+3.80vs Predicted
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3Columbia University2.07+5.11vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology0.56+9.20vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.54-1.37vs Predicted
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6Villanova University1.80+3.29vs Predicted
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7William and Mary2.13+0.94vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.68-2.03vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.45+1.54vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.79+2.52vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.77-1.67vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.77-6.19vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.38-5.86vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University0.98-1.89vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.21-0.91vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.75-6.70vs Predicted
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17American University0.83-4.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.7Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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5.8Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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8.11Columbia University2.070.1%1st Place
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13.2Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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3.63University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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9.29Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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7.94William and Mary2.130.1%1st Place
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5.97University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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10.54Webb Institute1.450.0%1st Place
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12.52University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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9.33Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.81Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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7.14George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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12.11Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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14.09Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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9.3Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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12.51American University0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.6% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 18.6% | 20.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 22.5% | 20.6% | 15.9% | 12.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sayre | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Isaac Clark | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Michael Russom | 10.1% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Douglas Zangre | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
| Nick Ventrilla | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 12.4% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.4% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 9.6% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 35.9% |
| Joan Boyle | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Peter Hays | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 16.3% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.