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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1William and Mary2.13+6.79vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+1.56vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+2.77vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.38+3.12vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.73+0.79vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+0.03vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.92vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.80+0.95vs Predicted
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9Drexel University1.75+0.50vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.45+0.27vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology0.56+2.26vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.77-2.68vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.07-4.68vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.21+0.23vs Predicted
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15American University0.83-2.63vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo0.79-3.35vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University0.98-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.79William and Mary2.130.1%1st Place
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3.56University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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5.77Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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7.12George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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5.79Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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6.03Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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6.08University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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8.95Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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9.5Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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10.27Webb Institute1.450.0%1st Place
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13.26Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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9.32Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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8.32Columbia University2.070.1%1st Place
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14.23Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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12.37American University0.830.0%1st Place
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12.65University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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12.0Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Clark | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 22.8% | 19.4% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 9.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Sachs | 9.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sayre | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Douglas Zangre | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 20.0% | 20.8% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 19.0% | 34.1% |
| Peter Hays | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 12.5% |
| Nick Ventrilla | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 14.5% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.