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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Villanova University1.80+7.88vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+1.62vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.83vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.73+2.00vs Predicted
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5William and Mary2.13+2.83vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo0.79+6.71vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.96vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.38-1.05vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.07-0.66vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.77-0.89vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-5.05vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.98-0.04vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.45-2.52vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology0.56-0.71vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.21-0.91vs Predicted
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16American University0.83-3.49vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.75-7.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.88Villanova University1.800.1%1st Place
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3.62University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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5.83Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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6.0Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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7.83William and Mary2.130.1%1st Place
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12.71University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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6.04University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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6.95George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.34Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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9.11Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.95Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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11.96Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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10.48Webb Institute1.450.0%1st Place
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13.29Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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14.09Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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12.51American University0.830.0%1st Place
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9.42Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Sayre | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 22.5% | 18.2% | 17.6% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 9.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Sachs | 10.5% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Nick Ventrilla | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Michael Russom | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 11.2% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 8.8% |
| Douglas Zangre | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 16.0% | 35.8% |
| Peter Hays | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.7% |
| Joan Boyle | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.