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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.73vs Predicted
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2William and Mary2.13+5.90vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+0.62vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.07+4.24vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.93vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.38+1.20vs Predicted
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7University of Buffalo0.79+5.54vs Predicted
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8Monmouth University0.98+3.76vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.73-2.89vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.77-0.81vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.21+3.18vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.77-6.15vs Predicted
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13American University0.83-0.51vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology0.56-0.68vs Predicted
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15Villanova University1.80-5.86vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.75-6.61vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.45-6.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.73Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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7.9William and Mary2.130.1%1st Place
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3.62University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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8.24Columbia University2.070.1%1st Place
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5.93University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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7.2George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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12.54University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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11.76Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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6.11Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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9.19Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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14.18Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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5.85Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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12.49American University0.830.0%1st Place
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13.32Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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9.14Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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9.39Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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10.4Webb Institute1.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 11.1% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 22.9% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Michael Russom | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nick Ventrilla | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 14.2% | 12.5% |
| Paul Luisi | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 36.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hays | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 13.3% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 18.3% | 20.7% |
| Andrew Sayre | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Joan Boyle | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Douglas Zangre | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.