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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.88vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+1.59vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.73+2.88vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.07+4.21vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+0.75vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo0.79+6.73vs Predicted
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7William and Mary2.13+0.95vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77-2.28vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.77+0.41vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology0.56+3.22vs Predicted
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11Villanova University1.80-1.79vs Predicted
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12American University0.83+0.39vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.45-2.56vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.21+0.21vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University0.98-3.04vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.38-8.93vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.75-7.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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3.59University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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5.88Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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8.21Columbia University2.070.1%1st Place
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5.75Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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12.73University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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7.95William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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5.72Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.41Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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13.22Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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9.21Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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12.39American University0.830.0%1st Place
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10.44Webb Institute1.450.0%1st Place
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14.21Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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11.96Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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7.07George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.39Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Russom | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 23.4% | 17.9% | 16.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Ventrilla | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 15.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 12.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 15.8% | 19.3% |
| Andrew Sayre | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Peter Hays | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 12.7% |
| Douglas Zangre | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 3.4% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 34.4% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 9.7% |
| Ian Connors | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Joan Boyle | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.