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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+2.82vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.04+2.22vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+2.06vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.95+3.56vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.72+0.07vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-0.02vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.93-0.01vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-0.35vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-1.07vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.20-0.23vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.79+0.69vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.41vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.13vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.82Georgetown University2.2020.2%1st Place
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4.22U. S. Naval Academy2.0417.1%1st Place
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5.06Cornell University1.6812.2%1st Place
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7.56Old Dominion University0.955.2%1st Place
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5.07University of Pennsylvania1.7211.1%1st Place
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5.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.978.6%1st Place
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6.99George Washington University0.936.0%1st Place
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7.65Fordham University1.134.7%1st Place
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7.93St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.5%1st Place
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9.77Washington College0.202.1%1st Place
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11.69Princeton University-0.790.8%1st Place
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8.59Christopher Newport University-0.843.8%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.6%1st Place
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11.8SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 20.2% | 17.9% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.1% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 1.9% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 16.9% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 21.6% | 36.4% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 3.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 4.6% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 21.4% | 39.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.