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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+2.52vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+3.76vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+2.76vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+2.07vs Predicted
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5Villanova University1.80+3.98vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.00vs Predicted
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7William and Mary2.13+0.93vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo0.79+4.29vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.45+1.54vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.77-0.92vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.38-3.80vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.21+2.11vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology0.56+0.29vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.07-5.71vs Predicted
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15American University0.83-2.62vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.64-6.23vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University0.98-4.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.52University of Virginia3.540.3%1st Place
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5.76Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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5.76Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.07University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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8.98Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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6.0Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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7.93William and Mary2.130.1%1st Place
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12.29University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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10.54Webb Institute1.450.0%1st Place
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9.08Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.2George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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14.11Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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13.29Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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8.29Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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12.38American University0.830.0%1st Place
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9.77Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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12.05Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 26.0% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sayre | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nick Ventrilla | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 12.9% |
| Douglas Zangre | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 3.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Ian Connors | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 34.6% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Peter Hays | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 13.4% |
| Chris Myers | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.