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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+2.90vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+3.14vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.04+1.23vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.72+0.98vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+2.93vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+2.66vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.20+2.89vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-0.30vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.93-1.85vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.95-2.47vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-5.11vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.51vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.79-1.33vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-2.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.9Georgetown University2.2020.5%1st Place
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5.14Cornell University1.6811.6%1st Place
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4.23U. S. Naval Academy2.0415.2%1st Place
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4.98University of Pennsylvania1.7212.4%1st Place
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7.93St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.7%1st Place
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8.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.294.2%1st Place
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9.89Washington College0.202.6%1st Place
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7.7Fordham University1.134.5%1st Place
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7.15George Washington University0.935.4%1st Place
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7.53Old Dominion University0.955.3%1st Place
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5.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.978.6%1st Place
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8.49Christopher Newport University-0.843.6%1st Place
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11.67Princeton University-0.791.2%1st Place
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11.85SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 20.5% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.2% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 12.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 4.5% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 16.4% | 10.8% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 22.0% | 35.4% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 20.2% | 40.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.