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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+2.89vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+2.97vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.13+4.65vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.04+0.19vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.72-0.07vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.95+1.69vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.20+2.69vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.74vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-1.23vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.30vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-5.12vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.93-4.94vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-1.08vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.89Georgetown University2.2019.4%1st Place
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4.97Cornell University1.6812.7%1st Place
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7.65Fordham University1.135.0%1st Place
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4.19U. S. Naval Academy2.0417.1%1st Place
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4.93University of Pennsylvania1.7211.5%1st Place
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7.69Old Dominion University0.955.3%1st Place
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9.69Washington College0.202.2%1st Place
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8.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.1%1st Place
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7.77St. Mary's College of Maryland0.675.1%1st Place
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8.7Christopher Newport University-0.843.1%1st Place
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5.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.979.1%1st Place
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7.06George Washington University0.935.0%1st Place
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11.92SUNY Stony Brook-0.600.5%1st Place
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11.9Princeton University-0.970.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 19.4% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 1.7% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.1% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 11.5% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 1.7% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 3.8% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Laura Smith | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 3.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 23.1% | 37.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 20.2% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.