← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University2.20+2.81vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.96vs Predicted
-
3George Washington University0.93+4.11vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy2.04+0.08vs Predicted
-
5Fordham University1.13+2.87vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+1.80vs Predicted
-
7Cornell University1.68-1.92vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University0.95-0.36vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.08vs Predicted
-
10Washington College0.20-0.36vs Predicted
-
11Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.41vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.19vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-1.14vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University-0.79-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.81Georgetown University2.2019.8%1st Place
-
4.96University of Pennsylvania1.7211.8%1st Place
-
7.11George Washington University0.935.1%1st Place
-
4.08U. S. Naval Academy2.0417.9%1st Place
-
7.87Fordham University1.134.9%1st Place
-
7.8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.675.3%1st Place
-
5.08Cornell University1.6811.1%1st Place
-
7.64Old Dominion University0.954.8%1st Place
-
5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.978.3%1st Place
-
9.64Washington College0.202.1%1st Place
-
8.59Christopher Newport University-0.843.7%1st Place
-
8.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.5%1st Place
-
11.86SUNY Stony Brook-0.600.7%1st Place
-
11.81Princeton University-0.790.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 19.8% | 17.1% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 11.8% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.9% | 16.0% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 1.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.1% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Heather Kerns | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 15.0% | 16.2% | 9.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 4.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 21.6% | 39.2% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 23.0% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.