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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.04+3.24vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University0.95+5.80vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+0.91vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.72+0.89vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.20+4.83vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.55vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+0.70vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-2.15vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.68-3.98vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.16vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.13-3.31vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.79-0.28vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-1.07vs Predicted
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14George Washington University0.93-6.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.24U. S. Naval Academy2.0416.1%1st Place
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7.8Old Dominion University0.954.7%1st Place
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3.91Georgetown University2.2019.0%1st Place
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4.89University of Pennsylvania1.7213.1%1st Place
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9.83Washington College0.202.6%1st Place
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8.55Christopher Newport University-0.843.8%1st Place
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7.7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.9%1st Place
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5.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.978.5%1st Place
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5.02Cornell University1.6811.9%1st Place
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8.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.294.1%1st Place
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7.69Fordham University1.134.2%1st Place
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11.72Princeton University-0.791.0%1st Place
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11.93SUNY Stony Brook-0.600.8%1st Place
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7.02George Washington University0.935.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.1% | 14.9% | 15.8% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 2.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 19.0% | 17.2% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 13.1% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 16.4% | 9.4% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 3.5% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.9% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 3.9% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 21.7% | 35.9% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 21.2% | 40.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.