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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+2.80vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+3.08vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.95+4.62vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.04+0.18vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.72-0.04vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.13+1.65vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+1.82vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-2.12vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-1.27vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.93-2.98vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.28vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.20-2.23vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-1.03vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8Georgetown University2.2020.6%1st Place
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5.08Cornell University1.6811.2%1st Place
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7.62Old Dominion University0.954.8%1st Place
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4.18U. S. Naval Academy2.0416.2%1st Place
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4.96University of Pennsylvania1.7212.7%1st Place
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7.65Fordham University1.135.3%1st Place
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8.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.7%1st Place
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5.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.978.3%1st Place
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7.73St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.4%1st Place
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7.02George Washington University0.935.7%1st Place
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8.72Christopher Newport University-0.842.9%1st Place
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9.77Washington College0.202.2%1st Place
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11.97Princeton University-0.970.7%1st Place
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11.81SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 20.6% | 17.1% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.2% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.2% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 4.3% |
| Heather Kerns | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Laura Smith | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 3.6% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 22.5% | 39.6% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 23.5% | 37.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.