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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.97vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+1.91vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.04+1.19vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+4.91vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+0.95vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.95+1.79vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.93+0.02vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68-3.02vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.13-1.37vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.47vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.20-1.23vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-0.12vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-5.28vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.79-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97University of Pennsylvania1.7211.7%1st Place
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3.91Georgetown University2.2020.0%1st Place
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4.19U. S. Naval Academy2.0417.2%1st Place
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8.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.3%1st Place
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5.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.977.7%1st Place
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7.79Old Dominion University0.954.3%1st Place
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7.02George Washington University0.935.8%1st Place
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4.98Cornell University1.6812.7%1st Place
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7.63Fordham University1.134.0%1st Place
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8.53Christopher Newport University-0.843.9%1st Place
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9.77Washington College0.202.2%1st Place
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11.88SUNY Stony Brook-0.600.9%1st Place
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7.72St. Mary's College of Maryland0.675.1%1st Place
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11.76Princeton University-0.791.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 11.7% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.0% | 16.4% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.2% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 4.4% |
| Heather Kerns | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.7% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 1.7% |
| Laura Smith | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 3.2% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 10.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 21.6% | 39.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 21.6% | 37.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.