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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+2.74vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+2.82vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+2.55vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.72+0.70vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.95+2.25vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+1.33vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.04-2.94vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-0.66vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.20+0.23vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.93-3.31vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.06vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.97-0.75vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-1.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.74Georgetown University2.2018.9%1st Place
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4.82Cornell University1.6813.2%1st Place
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5.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.9710.1%1st Place
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4.7University of Pennsylvania1.7213.1%1st Place
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7.25Old Dominion University0.954.6%1st Place
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7.33St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.8%1st Place
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4.06U. S. Naval Academy2.0417.9%1st Place
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7.34Fordham University1.134.5%1st Place
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9.23Washington College0.202.5%1st Place
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6.69George Washington University0.936.1%1st Place
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7.94Christopher Newport University-0.844.0%1st Place
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11.25Princeton University-0.970.7%1st Place
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11.1SUNY Stony Brook-0.600.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 18.9% | 17.9% | 17.1% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 13.2% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 13.1% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 1.4% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.9% | 16.3% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 1.7% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 17.7% | 19.6% | 8.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Laura Smith | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 11.3% | 23.8% | 42.4% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 22.9% | 40.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.