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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.79vs Predicted
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2George Washington University0.93+4.71vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+1.83vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.95+3.17vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20-1.21vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.04-1.98vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-1.41vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-0.78vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.20+0.14vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-2.61vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.08vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.97-0.73vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-1.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79University of Pennsylvania1.7213.4%1st Place
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6.71George Washington University0.936.1%1st Place
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4.83Cornell University1.6812.7%1st Place
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7.17Old Dominion University0.954.6%1st Place
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3.79Georgetown University2.2019.4%1st Place
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4.02U. S. Naval Academy2.0417.4%1st Place
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5.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.979.0%1st Place
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7.22Fordham University1.135.1%1st Place
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9.14Washington College0.202.5%1st Place
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7.39St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.5%1st Place
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7.92Christopher Newport University-0.844.0%1st Place
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11.27Princeton University-0.970.6%1st Place
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11.15SUNY Stony Brook-0.600.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 13.4% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 1.6% |
| Piper Holthus | 19.4% | 18.6% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.4% | 15.3% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 18.9% | 16.6% | 8.7% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 1.8% |
| Laura Smith | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 3.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 24.2% | 42.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 25.0% | 39.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.