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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.45+4.88vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.44+2.65vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.18+2.80vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.86+0.19vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+1.43vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.68+0.77vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.65+0.37vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.71-1.31vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.33vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.91vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.07-5.10vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.32-2.11vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.79-0.58vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-2.64-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88University of Pennsylvania1.459.8%1st Place
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4.65Cornell University1.4415.6%1st Place
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5.8U. S. Naval Academy1.188.5%1st Place
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4.19Georgetown University1.8618.1%1st Place
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6.43St. Mary's College of Maryland0.837.5%1st Place
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6.77Old Dominion University0.686.0%1st Place
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7.37Christopher Newport University0.655.0%1st Place
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6.69Fordham University0.717.1%1st Place
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6.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.5%1st Place
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9.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.4%1st Place
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5.9George Washington University1.079.7%1st Place
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9.89Princeton University-0.321.9%1st Place
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12.42Washington College-1.790.7%1st Place
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13.23SUNY Stony Brook-2.640.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 15.6% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 18.1% | 17.3% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Megan Geith | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 15.5% | 19.4% | 8.9% | 1.6% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 25.6% | 16.3% | 3.2% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 11.2% | 45.2% | 27.5% |
| Jada Seto | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 19.6% | 67.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.