← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania1.45+4.90vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University1.86+2.19vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.67vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University0.71+2.62vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University1.44-0.30vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy1.18-0.31vs Predicted
-
7George Washington University1.07-1.13vs Predicted
-
8Christopher Newport University0.65-0.73vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University0.68-2.04vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-3.61vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-1.84vs Predicted
-
12Princeton University-0.32-1.97vs Predicted
-
13Washington College-1.79-0.71vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Stony Brook-2.64-0.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.9University of Pennsylvania1.459.6%1st Place
-
4.19Georgetown University1.8617.6%1st Place
-
6.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.8%1st Place
-
6.62Fordham University0.716.6%1st Place
-
4.7Cornell University1.4414.0%1st Place
-
5.69U. S. Naval Academy1.1810.2%1st Place
-
5.87George Washington University1.078.9%1st Place
-
7.27Christopher Newport University0.656.7%1st Place
-
6.96Old Dominion University0.686.3%1st Place
-
6.39St. Mary's College of Maryland0.838.2%1st Place
-
9.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.5%1st Place
-
10.03Princeton University-0.321.9%1st Place
-
12.29Washington College-1.790.6%1st Place
-
13.26SUNY Stony Brook-2.640.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 17.6% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.0% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Megan Geith | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 1.2% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 13.0% | 28.4% | 16.3% | 3.2% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 9.7% | 45.8% | 27.0% |
| Jada Seto | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 19.4% | 68.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.