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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.44+3.67vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.18+3.74vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.86+1.23vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.68+3.04vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.65+2.27vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.45-0.17vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.07-1.23vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.37vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.71-2.37vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-3.51vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-1.91vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.79+0.32vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32-2.91vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-2.64-0.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67Cornell University1.4414.5%1st Place
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5.74U. S. Naval Academy1.189.2%1st Place
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4.23Georgetown University1.8616.5%1st Place
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7.04Old Dominion University0.686.2%1st Place
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7.27Christopher Newport University0.655.5%1st Place
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5.83University of Pennsylvania1.4510.6%1st Place
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5.77George Washington University1.079.6%1st Place
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6.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.3%1st Place
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6.63Fordham University0.716.6%1st Place
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6.49St. Mary's College of Maryland0.838.0%1st Place
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9.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.103.2%1st Place
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12.32Washington College-1.790.7%1st Place
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10.09Princeton University-0.321.9%1st Place
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13.2SUNY Stony Brook-2.640.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.5% | 15.5% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 16.5% | 16.8% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 19.7% | 9.6% | 1.4% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 11.2% | 44.6% | 27.2% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 26.4% | 16.4% | 3.8% |
| Jada Seto | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 19.8% | 66.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.