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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.44+3.88vs Predicted
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2Princeton University-0.32+8.16vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.97+3.02vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.86+0.22vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.45+0.88vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.07+0.10vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.65+0.41vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+1.13vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-2.33vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.18-4.29vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-4.42vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.71-5.18vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.79-0.77vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-2.64-0.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88Cornell University1.4412.6%1st Place
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10.16Princeton University-0.322.0%1st Place
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6.02Old Dominion University0.979.2%1st Place
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4.22Georgetown University1.8615.4%1st Place
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5.88University of Pennsylvania1.4510.0%1st Place
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6.1George Washington University1.079.2%1st Place
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7.41Christopher Newport University0.655.9%1st Place
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9.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.103.0%1st Place
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6.67St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.1%1st Place
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5.71U. S. Naval Academy1.1811.2%1st Place
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6.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.918.0%1st Place
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6.82Fordham University0.715.5%1st Place
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12.23Washington College-1.790.6%1st Place
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13.18SUNY Stony Brook-2.640.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Ehnot | 12.6% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 26.9% | 17.9% | 4.8% |
| Gianna Dewey | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 15.4% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 17.8% | 20.1% | 9.5% | 1.3% |
| Lily Flack | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ava Farley | 11.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 11.5% | 42.8% | 26.8% |
| Jada Seto | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 19.8% | 65.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.