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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+5.65vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.65+5.53vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.44+1.71vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+2.86vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.45+0.92vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+3.05vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.97-1.01vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.07-2.14vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-2.34vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.86-5.64vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.18-5.20vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.32-1.96vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-2.64+0.24vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.79-1.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.8%1st Place
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7.53Christopher Newport University0.655.4%1st Place
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4.71Cornell University1.4413.3%1st Place
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6.86Fordham University0.715.8%1st Place
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5.92University of Pennsylvania1.459.5%1st Place
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9.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.103.0%1st Place
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5.99Old Dominion University0.9710.1%1st Place
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5.86George Washington University1.0710.3%1st Place
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6.66St. Mary's College of Maryland0.616.2%1st Place
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4.36Georgetown University1.8616.2%1st Place
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5.8U. S. Naval Academy1.189.4%1st Place
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10.04Princeton University-0.321.9%1st Place
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13.24SUNY Stony Brook-2.640.4%1st Place
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12.34Washington College-1.790.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 13.3% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 20.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% |
| Gianna Dewey | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Lily Flack | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 16.2% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 26.7% | 16.8% | 3.2% |
| Jada Seto | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 20.0% | 66.8% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 10.4% | 45.1% | 27.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.