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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+3.11vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.07+3.85vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.45+2.83vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.97+1.82vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+1.38vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.71+0.42vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.44-2.41vs Predicted
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8Princeton University-0.32+1.39vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.55vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.18-4.49vs Predicted
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11Washington College-1.79+0.81vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.65-4.88vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-1.74-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Georgetown University1.8619.1%1st Place
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5.85George Washington University1.078.1%1st Place
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5.83University of Pennsylvania1.459.0%1st Place
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5.82Old Dominion University0.979.4%1st Place
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6.38St. Mary's College of Maryland0.616.9%1st Place
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6.42Fordham University0.718.5%1st Place
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4.59Cornell University1.4415.2%1st Place
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9.39Princeton University-0.322.4%1st Place
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6.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.9%1st Place
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5.51U. S. Naval Academy1.189.6%1st Place
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11.81Washington College-1.790.4%1st Place
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7.12Christopher Newport University0.655.2%1st Place
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11.72SUNY Stony Brook-1.740.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 19.1% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 15.2% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 25.9% | 19.7% | 6.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Ava Farley | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 9.5% | 30.7% | 47.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 9.9% | 32.3% | 44.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.