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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+5.41vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.44+2.71vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.97+2.80vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.86+0.22vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.45+0.69vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.65+1.27vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.18-1.51vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.07-2.28vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.71-2.56vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-3.59vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.32-1.49vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-1.74-0.39vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.79-1.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.2%1st Place
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4.71Cornell University1.4413.1%1st Place
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5.8Old Dominion University0.9710.5%1st Place
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4.22Georgetown University1.8616.8%1st Place
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5.69University of Pennsylvania1.4510.5%1st Place
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7.27Christopher Newport University0.655.0%1st Place
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5.49U. S. Naval Academy1.1810.0%1st Place
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5.72George Washington University1.079.7%1st Place
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6.44Fordham University0.717.4%1st Place
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6.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.5%1st Place
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9.51Princeton University-0.322.5%1st Place
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11.61SUNY Stony Brook-1.740.4%1st Place
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11.73Washington College-1.790.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily Flack | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 13.1% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 16.8% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Ava Farley | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 25.2% | 21.1% | 6.5% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 9.7% | 31.5% | 43.4% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 8.5% | 30.6% | 47.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.