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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+3.25vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.45+3.77vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.40vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.18+1.51vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+1.46vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.44-1.43vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.65+0.09vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.07-2.13vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.97-3.17vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-1.74+1.63vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.32-1.50vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.79-0.31vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.71-6.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.25Georgetown University1.8615.7%1st Place
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5.77University of Pennsylvania1.459.9%1st Place
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6.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.1%1st Place
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5.51U. S. Naval Academy1.1810.1%1st Place
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6.46St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.3%1st Place
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4.57Cornell University1.4414.5%1st Place
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7.09Christopher Newport University0.656.0%1st Place
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5.87George Washington University1.078.9%1st Place
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5.83Old Dominion University0.979.2%1st Place
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11.63SUNY Stony Brook-1.740.8%1st Place
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9.5Princeton University-0.321.8%1st Place
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11.69Washington College-1.790.5%1st Place
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6.43Fordham University0.718.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 15.7% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Ava Farley | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.5% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 9.7% | 31.5% | 43.8% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 24.8% | 20.6% | 7.8% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 9.3% | 30.2% | 46.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.