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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+5.36vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.44+2.59vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.86+1.16vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.45+1.79vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.65+2.13vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+0.30vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.18-1.41vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.07-2.09vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.71-2.58vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.97-4.21vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook-1.74+0.66vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.79-0.27vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.0%1st Place
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4.59Cornell University1.4415.0%1st Place
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4.16Georgetown University1.8617.5%1st Place
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5.79University of Pennsylvania1.459.2%1st Place
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7.13Christopher Newport University0.655.5%1st Place
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6.3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.618.1%1st Place
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5.59U. S. Naval Academy1.1810.2%1st Place
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5.91George Washington University1.078.1%1st Place
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6.42Fordham University0.717.4%1st Place
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5.79Old Dominion University0.978.5%1st Place
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11.66SUNY Stony Brook-1.740.8%1st Place
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11.73Washington College-1.790.5%1st Place
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9.57Princeton University-0.322.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 15.0% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 17.5% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 4.6% | 0.9% |
| Lily Flack | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Ava Farley | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 9.9% | 30.5% | 44.6% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 9.8% | 30.4% | 46.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 25.9% | 22.1% | 6.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.