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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+3.23vs Predicted
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2Fordham University0.71+4.43vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.44+1.51vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.45+1.74vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.97+0.80vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+0.27vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.18-1.36vs Predicted
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8Princeton University-0.32+1.69vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.07-3.12vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-3.56vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.65-3.93vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.79-0.35vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-1.74-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.23Georgetown University1.8617.1%1st Place
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6.43Fordham University0.716.3%1st Place
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4.51Cornell University1.4415.9%1st Place
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5.74University of Pennsylvania1.4511.1%1st Place
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5.8Old Dominion University0.979.2%1st Place
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6.27St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.3%1st Place
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5.64U. S. Naval Academy1.189.6%1st Place
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9.69Princeton University-0.322.0%1st Place
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5.88George Washington University1.078.2%1st Place
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6.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.8%1st Place
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7.07Christopher Newport University0.655.6%1st Place
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11.65Washington College-1.790.5%1st Place
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11.65SUNY Stony Brook-1.740.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 17.1% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 15.9% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Ava Farley | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 27.0% | 21.9% | 7.8% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 9.3% | 30.3% | 45.8% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 9.8% | 31.4% | 44.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.