Race 12B

maisa-women-fall-dinghy

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kelly Bates 17.5% 15.9% 13.6% 12.2% 11.5% 8.8% 7.5% 6.2% 3.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Madeleine Rice 9.2% 10.0% 10.1% 9.0% 10.0% 10.1% 8.6% 8.3% 9.2% 8.6% 5.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Lauren Ehnot 14.8% 13.7% 11.6% 14.0% 11.2% 9.7% 8.9% 5.7% 5.0% 3.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Lily Flack 8.6% 8.0% 7.5% 9.1% 8.6% 8.2% 10.0% 9.6% 9.7% 10.9% 7.1% 2.8% 0.2%
Ava Farley 9.7% 9.7% 11.2% 9.2% 10.9% 11.5% 9.2% 8.5% 7.8% 6.9% 4.0% 1.5% 0.1%
Gianna Dewey 8.4% 10.3% 10.4% 8.2% 8.5% 10.1% 11.1% 9.7% 9.1% 7.5% 5.1% 1.5% 0.1%
Elizabeth Starck 6.8% 7.3% 7.2% 8.0% 8.6% 9.2% 9.6% 10.8% 11.8% 10.8% 7.0% 2.5% 0.4%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia 8.9% 8.6% 9.6% 10.2% 10.4% 9.5% 9.1% 10.9% 9.2% 8.0% 4.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Lizzie Cochran 7.6% 7.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.2% 9.3% 9.4% 10.3% 10.2% 10.8% 7.5% 2.9% 0.2%
Grace Watlington 5.1% 5.7% 6.9% 7.0% 8.0% 7.3% 8.8% 11.6% 11.3% 12.5% 11.5% 4.0% 0.4%
Carly Mraz 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.6% 4.5% 4.9% 5.1% 7.8% 11.2% 27.2% 20.5% 6.6%
Laurel Krause 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 2.5% 3.4% 10.1% 30.3% 46.5%
Margaret Myers-Aldous 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 8.8% 30.9% 45.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.