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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+3.15vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.44+2.62vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.07+2.84vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+2.56vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+1.44vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.65+1.10vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.45-1.26vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.42vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.97-3.24vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-3.70vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.32-1.38vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.79-0.37vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-1.74-1.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.15Georgetown University1.8617.6%1st Place
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4.62Cornell University1.4413.8%1st Place
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5.84George Washington University1.078.6%1st Place
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6.56Fordham University0.716.8%1st Place
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6.44St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.8%1st Place
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7.1Christopher Newport University0.655.9%1st Place
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5.74University of Pennsylvania1.459.8%1st Place
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5.58U. S. Naval Academy1.1810.2%1st Place
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5.76Old Dominion University0.978.5%1st Place
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6.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.8%1st Place
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9.62Princeton University-0.322.1%1st Place
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11.63Washington College-1.790.7%1st Place
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11.66SUNY Stony Brook-1.740.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 17.6% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 13.8% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Lily Flack | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 28.4% | 20.7% | 7.8% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 8.8% | 30.8% | 45.6% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 10.3% | 30.5% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.