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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.44+3.64vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+4.35vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.45+2.77vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.07+1.74vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.97+0.70vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.86-1.82vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.65+0.14vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.33vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.51vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.71-3.48vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.32-1.52vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-1.74-0.44vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.79-1.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.64Cornell University1.4414.2%1st Place
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6.35St. Mary's College of Maryland0.617.4%1st Place
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5.77University of Pennsylvania1.4510.2%1st Place
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5.74George Washington University1.079.7%1st Place
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5.7Old Dominion University0.979.7%1st Place
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4.18Georgetown University1.8616.0%1st Place
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7.14Christopher Newport University0.655.5%1st Place
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5.67U. S. Naval Academy1.189.2%1st Place
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6.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.3%1st Place
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6.52Fordham University0.717.5%1st Place
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9.48Princeton University-0.321.9%1st Place
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11.56SUNY Stony Brook-1.740.8%1st Place
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11.76Washington College-1.790.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lily Flack | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 16.0% | 16.6% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| Ava Farley | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 25.6% | 21.0% | 7.4% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 9.9% | 32.2% | 42.7% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 9.3% | 29.7% | 47.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.