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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.10+5.53vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.60+5.17vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+4.33vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.04+1.77vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+1.29vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.22+1.64vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.09-1.31vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.51-0.16vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island0.99-0.03vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.71-6.17vs Predicted
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11Tufts University0.69-1.16vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.14-3.49vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.52-1.36vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University0.49-3.13vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.13-2.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53Harvard University2.109.5%1st Place
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7.17Dartmouth College1.607.6%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.035.3%1st Place
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5.77Brown University2.0410.5%1st Place
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6.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.778.0%1st Place
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7.64Northeastern University1.226.0%1st Place
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5.69Boston College2.0911.5%1st Place
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7.84Bowdoin College1.514.2%1st Place
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8.97University of Rhode Island0.994.2%1st Place
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3.83Yale University2.7120.8%1st Place
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9.84Tufts University0.692.6%1st Place
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8.51Boston University1.144.5%1st Place
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11.64Connecticut College0.521.9%1st Place
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10.87Roger Williams University0.491.8%1st Place
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12.07University of Vermont-0.131.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordelia Burn | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Taylor Eastman | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kyra Phelan | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 4.7% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 20.8% | 18.8% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Samantha Jensen | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 8.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 17.2% | 26.4% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 17.2% | 34.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.