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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.04+4.74vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.60+5.14vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.71+0.87vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+2.07vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+2.61vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.10+0.67vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.99+1.78vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.09-2.22vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.51-1.21vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University0.49+0.79vs Predicted
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11Tufts University0.69-1.23vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.22-4.38vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont-0.13-0.85vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.52-2.39vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.14-6.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.74Brown University2.0411.1%1st Place
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7.14Dartmouth College1.607.2%1st Place
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3.87Yale University2.7119.6%1st Place
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6.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.7710.0%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.036.0%1st Place
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6.67Harvard University2.108.4%1st Place
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8.78University of Rhode Island0.994.2%1st Place
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5.78Boston College2.099.4%1st Place
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7.79Bowdoin College1.515.5%1st Place
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10.79Roger Williams University0.491.9%1st Place
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9.77Tufts University0.692.9%1st Place
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7.62Northeastern University1.225.9%1st Place
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12.15University of Vermont-0.130.9%1st Place
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11.61Connecticut College0.521.8%1st Place
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8.6Boston University1.145.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brielle Willoughby | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Taylor Eastman | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 19.6% | 18.9% | 15.6% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Cordelia Burn | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kyra Phelan | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 17.1% | 15.2% |
| Samantha Jensen | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 8.8% |
| Eva Ermlich | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 16.9% | 34.8% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 19.8% | 25.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.