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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.19+7.63vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+5.33vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.74+3.35vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College4.06+4.87vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+9.14vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.98+3.32vs Predicted
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7Harvard University4.36+0.65vs Predicted
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8Tufts University4.08+0.80vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.64+1.80vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University4.01-0.56vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.99-1.57vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University4.31-3.76vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-3.61vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College4.15-5.71vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-3.52vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida3.49-4.54vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.38-5.07vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-8.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.63Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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7.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.35Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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8.87Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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14.14University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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9.32Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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7.65Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.8Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.8College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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9.44Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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9.43University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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8.24Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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9.39St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.29SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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11.46University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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11.93U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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9.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morris | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Blouin | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Sam Williams | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Michael Russom | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 34.4% |
| Colin Smith | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Brendan Kopp | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| William Haeger | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Mac Mace | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 5.6% |
| Dillon Paiva | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Nicholas Voss | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% |
| Sean Bouchard | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Daniel Liberty | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.8% |
| Will Stocke | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% |
| Taylor Vann | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| Andrew Sommer | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.