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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+7.67vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+5.20vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College4.06+6.07vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+7.35vs Predicted
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5Harvard University4.36+2.57vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida3.49+5.25vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University4.31+0.75vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01+0.97vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+0.40vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.19-1.49vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.32vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.98-2.45vs Predicted
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13Tufts University4.08-4.39vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University4.74-8.11vs Predicted
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15University of Miami3.99-5.89vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-4.55vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.64-6.21vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy3.38-6.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.67SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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7.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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9.07Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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11.35Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
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7.57Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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11.25University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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7.75Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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8.97Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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9.4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.0%1st Place
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8.51Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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14.32University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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9.55Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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8.61Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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5.89Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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9.11University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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11.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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10.79College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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11.54U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Samuel Blouin | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Sam Williams | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| David Alfonso | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% |
| Brendan Kopp | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Will Stocke | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% |
| Sean Bouchard | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Dillon Paiva | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Joseph Morris | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Michael Russom | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 35.4% |
| Colin Smith | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| William Haeger | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Chris Barnard | 11.7% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Voss | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Daniel Liberty | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% |
| Mac Mace | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 6.3% |
| Taylor Vann | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.