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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University4.31+7.12vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.19+6.64vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College4.06+6.19vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+10.08vs Predicted
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5Tufts University4.08+3.84vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University4.01+3.19vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.98+2.23vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.38+3.71vs Predicted
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9University of Miami3.99+0.29vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.75vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-3.69vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.49-0.26vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-3.63vs Predicted
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14Harvard University4.36-6.58vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University4.74-8.91vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.64-5.17vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-7.16vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College4.15-9.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.12Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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8.64Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.19Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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14.08University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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8.84Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.19Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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9.23Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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11.71U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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9.29University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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11.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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7.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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11.74University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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9.37St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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7.42Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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6.09Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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10.83College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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9.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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8.36SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Bouchard | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Morris | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Sam Williams | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Michael Russom | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 36.1% |
| William Haeger | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% |
| Dillon Paiva | 6.2% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Colin Smith | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| Taylor Vann | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 11.7% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Daniel Liberty | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% |
| Samuel Blouin | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Will Stocke | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
| Brendan Kopp | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Chris Barnard | 11.7% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Mac Mace | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 6.0% |
| Andrew Sommer | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.