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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.19+7.62vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+9.78vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University4.01+6.39vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.49+7.21vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.98+4.22vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.06+2.97vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+2.50vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.64+2.67vs Predicted
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9Tufts University4.08-0.18vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University4.31-1.86vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.99-1.62vs Predicted
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12Harvard University4.36-3.97vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-5.98vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-4.66vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College4.15-6.52vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University4.74-9.74vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.38-5.06vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.68-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.62Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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11.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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9.39Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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11.21University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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9.22Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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8.97Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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9.5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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10.67College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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8.82Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.14Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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9.38University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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8.03Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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9.34Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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8.48SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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6.26Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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11.94U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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14.21University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morris | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Daniel Liberty | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.4% |
| Dillon Paiva | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Will Stocke | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% |
| Colin Smith | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Sam Williams | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% |
| Mac Mace | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
| William Haeger | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Sean Bouchard | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Voss | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Brendan Kopp | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Sommer | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Taylor Vann | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
| Michael Russom | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 35.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.