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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+6.36vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University4.01+7.40vs Predicted
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3University of Miami3.99+6.53vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+5.40vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.49+6.23vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College4.15+2.58vs Predicted
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7Tufts University4.08+1.81vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University4.74-1.91vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.64+1.75vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.19-1.31vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-1.20vs Predicted
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12Harvard University4.36-4.05vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.98-3.82vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-2.84vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.38-3.23vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University4.31-8.06vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College4.06-7.87vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.68-3.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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9.4Old Dominion University4.010.0%1st Place
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9.53University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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9.4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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11.23University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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8.58SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.81Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.09Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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10.75College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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8.69Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.0%1st Place
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7.95Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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9.18Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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11.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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11.77U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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7.94Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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9.13Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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14.23University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Blouin | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Dillon Paiva | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Nicholas Voss | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% |
| Will Stocke | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| William Haeger | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 11.7% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mac Mace | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% |
| Joseph Morris | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Andrew Sommer | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Brendan Kopp | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Colin Smith | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| Daniel Liberty | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
| Taylor Vann | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Sean Bouchard | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Sam Williams | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| Michael Russom | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 36.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.