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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.86vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+3.79vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.43+6.27vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.20vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+0.23vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.18vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81+3.20vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.62+1.21vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.30vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-1.94vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.12-0.68vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.88-2.99vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-2.21vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.73-2.17vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University0.19-1.33vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.46-2.68vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-4.06vs Predicted
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18Hampton University-0.10-3.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.86U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.8%1st Place
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5.79Cornell University2.3811.3%1st Place
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9.27Webb Institute1.434.6%1st Place
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7.2University of Pennsylvania2.428.4%1st Place
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5.23Georgetown University2.7512.4%1st Place
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5.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.3%1st Place
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10.2Old Dominion University1.813.7%1st Place
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9.21Fordham University1.624.4%1st Place
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7.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.9%1st Place
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8.06George Washington University1.825.9%1st Place
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10.32Drexel University1.124.2%1st Place
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9.01SUNY Maritime College1.885.2%1st Place
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10.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.2%1st Place
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11.83Christopher Newport University0.732.2%1st Place
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13.67Syracuse University0.191.5%1st Place
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13.32Princeton University0.461.0%1st Place
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12.94Rochester Institute of Technology0.491.9%1st Place
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14.77Hampton University-0.101.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.4% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Will Murray | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 7.4% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 18.9% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 15.3% |
| Cole Bender | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 13.0% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 33.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.