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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.80vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.98vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+2.35vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.83vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.81+5.39vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.19vs Predicted
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7Drexel University1.12+3.34vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42-0.90vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.82-1.14vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.46+3.18vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.43-2.04vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.38-6.24vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-2.51vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.73-1.91vs Predicted
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15Hampton University-0.10-0.09vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University0.19-2.15vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.62-7.73vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.8SUNY Maritime College1.884.7%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.1%1st Place
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5.35Georgetown University2.7512.4%1st Place
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7.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.1%1st Place
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10.39Old Dominion University1.813.0%1st Place
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5.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.9%1st Place
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10.34Drexel University1.123.4%1st Place
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7.1University of Pennsylvania2.428.8%1st Place
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7.86George Washington University1.827.0%1st Place
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13.18Princeton University0.461.5%1st Place
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8.96Webb Institute1.434.9%1st Place
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5.76Cornell University2.3811.7%1st Place
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10.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.9%1st Place
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12.09Christopher Newport University0.732.5%1st Place
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14.91Hampton University-0.100.9%1st Place
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13.85Syracuse University0.190.9%1st Place
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9.27Fordham University1.624.5%1st Place
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13.02Rochester Institute of Technology0.491.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.4% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 15.8% | 14.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Green | 11.7% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 6.7% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 17.8% | 33.7% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 16.5% | 21.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Cole Bender | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.