← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University2.75+4.39vs Predicted
-
2Drexel University1.12+8.09vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.26vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.57vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.88vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University2.38-0.18vs Predicted
-
7Webb Institute1.43+2.19vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University1.82-0.10vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.11vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-4.25vs Predicted
-
11Syracuse University0.19+2.79vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University1.62-2.78vs Predicted
-
13Princeton University0.46+0.31vs Predicted
-
14Old Dominion University1.81-3.78vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University0.73-2.97vs Predicted
-
16Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-2.81vs Predicted
-
17Hampton University-0.10-2.17vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-7.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.39Georgetown University2.7513.7%1st Place
-
10.09Drexel University1.123.5%1st Place
-
7.26University of Pennsylvania2.427.3%1st Place
-
7.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.5%1st Place
-
8.88SUNY Maritime College1.884.9%1st Place
-
5.82Cornell University2.3810.8%1st Place
-
9.19Webb Institute1.435.3%1st Place
-
7.9George Washington University1.826.2%1st Place
-
5.89U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.3%1st Place
-
5.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
-
13.79Syracuse University0.191.1%1st Place
-
9.22Fordham University1.624.9%1st Place
-
13.31Princeton University0.461.5%1st Place
-
10.22Old Dominion University1.813.4%1st Place
-
12.03Christopher Newport University0.731.9%1st Place
-
13.19Rochester Institute of Technology0.491.5%1st Place
-
14.83Hampton University-0.100.8%1st Place
-
10.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 13.7% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Green | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 19.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 17.2% | 14.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Joshua Bendura | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% |
| Cole Bender | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 14.0% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 16.7% | 33.8% |
| Lars Osell | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.