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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.42+6.26vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+3.85vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.01vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+1.38vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.81+5.10vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.43+3.15vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.80vs Predicted
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8Drexel University1.12+2.20vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.59vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-2.09vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.62-1.81vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-6.18vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.10+1.94vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University0.19-0.21vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.46-1.76vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.88-7.24vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.73-5.08vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-4.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.26University of Pennsylvania2.428.2%1st Place
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5.85Cornell University2.3811.5%1st Place
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6.01U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.2%1st Place
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5.38Georgetown University2.7512.5%1st Place
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10.1Old Dominion University1.812.9%1st Place
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9.15Webb Institute1.434.9%1st Place
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7.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.9%1st Place
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10.2Drexel University1.123.8%1st Place
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10.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.4%1st Place
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7.91George Washington University1.827.0%1st Place
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9.19Fordham University1.624.2%1st Place
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5.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.4%1st Place
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14.94Hampton University-0.100.7%1st Place
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13.79Syracuse University0.191.1%1st Place
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13.24Princeton University0.461.4%1st Place
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8.76SUNY Maritime College1.885.4%1st Place
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11.92Christopher Newport University0.732.1%1st Place
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13.1Rochester Institute of Technology0.491.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.5% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Lars Osell | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 16.8% | 34.2% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 15.7% | 21.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 14.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 6.2% |
| Cole Bender | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.