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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.82+6.83vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.43+6.99vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.73vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.95vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+0.21vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.62vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+3.75vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88+0.82vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38-3.33vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.73+1.96vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.12-0.69vs Predicted
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12Hampton University-0.10+2.77vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.81-2.62vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.42-6.96vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.94-5.06vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-2.95vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University0.19-3.26vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.46-4.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.83George Washington University1.826.5%1st Place
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8.99Webb Institute1.435.0%1st Place
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5.73St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.9%1st Place
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5.95U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.8%1st Place
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5.21Georgetown University2.7513.4%1st Place
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7.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.3%1st Place
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10.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.0%1st Place
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8.82SUNY Maritime College1.884.2%1st Place
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5.67Cornell University2.3812.6%1st Place
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11.96Christopher Newport University0.732.1%1st Place
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10.31Drexel University1.122.9%1st Place
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14.77Hampton University-0.100.8%1st Place
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10.38Old Dominion University1.813.3%1st Place
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7.04University of Pennsylvania2.428.5%1st Place
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9.94Fordham University1.944.2%1st Place
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13.05Rochester Institute of Technology0.491.6%1st Place
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13.74Syracuse University0.191.1%1st Place
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13.24Princeton University0.461.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.9% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 6.9% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 16.1% | 33.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Cole Bender | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 12.8% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 15.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.