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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+5.01vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.93vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.66vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+6.68vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+0.33vs Predicted
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6Drexel University1.12+4.03vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.75vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.46+5.12vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.42-1.82vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.81+0.16vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.82-3.10vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.94-2.07vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.10+1.68vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.17vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.73-3.17vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.43-6.82vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-3.91vs Predicted
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18Syracuse University0.19-4.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.01Cornell University2.3810.0%1st Place
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5.93U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.2%1st Place
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5.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.8%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.6%1st Place
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5.33Georgetown University2.7514.1%1st Place
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10.03Drexel University1.123.5%1st Place
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.5%1st Place
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13.12Princeton University0.461.2%1st Place
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7.18University of Pennsylvania2.428.0%1st Place
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10.16Old Dominion University1.813.5%1st Place
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7.9George Washington University1.826.4%1st Place
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9.93Fordham University1.943.2%1st Place
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14.68Hampton University-0.101.5%1st Place
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8.83SUNY Maritime College1.885.2%1st Place
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11.83Christopher Newport University0.732.5%1st Place
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9.18Webb Institute1.433.8%1st Place
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13.09Rochester Institute of Technology0.491.7%1st Place
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13.73Syracuse University0.191.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.1% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Will Murray | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 34.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 6.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Cole Bender | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 13.8% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 15.5% | 20.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.