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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+4.71vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.75+3.17vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.40vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+5.13vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.85vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.81+4.09vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+0.62vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.33vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.16vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-2.37vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.31vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.12-2.04vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.43-4.12vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.73-2.28vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.46-2.08vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University0.19-2.53vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.10-2.36vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.48-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71Cornell University2.3811.7%1st Place
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5.17Georgetown University2.7514.1%1st Place
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7.4University of Pennsylvania2.427.3%1st Place
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9.13Fordham University1.624.7%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy2.6012.1%1st Place
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10.09Old Dominion University1.813.0%1st Place
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7.62George Washington University1.826.8%1st Place
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5.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.7%1st Place
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8.84SUNY Maritime College1.885.6%1st Place
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7.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.9%1st Place
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10.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.3%1st Place
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9.96Drexel University1.124.0%1st Place
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8.88Webb Institute1.434.5%1st Place
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11.72Christopher Newport University0.732.4%1st Place
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12.92Princeton University0.461.4%1st Place
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13.47Syracuse University0.191.1%1st Place
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14.64Hampton University-0.100.9%1st Place
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15.61Rochester Institute of Technology-0.480.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.1% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.7% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Will Murray | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 4.6% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 9.3% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 17.3% | 13.2% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 20.8% | 23.5% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 17.7% | 43.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.