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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+4.33vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+3.68vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.57vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.19vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.43+4.04vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+4.31vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.57vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88+0.84vs Predicted
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9Drexel University1.12+0.90vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.73+1.66vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.60-5.00vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.82-4.14vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.46+0.01vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.62-4.89vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University0.19-1.48vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.81-5.86vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.10-2.36vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.48-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.33Georgetown University2.7512.7%1st Place
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5.68Cornell University2.3811.6%1st Place
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5.57St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
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7.19University of Pennsylvania2.428.3%1st Place
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9.04Webb Institute1.435.0%1st Place
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10.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.5%1st Place
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7.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.5%1st Place
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8.84SUNY Maritime College1.884.3%1st Place
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9.9Drexel University1.123.4%1st Place
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11.66Christopher Newport University0.732.4%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.5%1st Place
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7.86George Washington University1.827.1%1st Place
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13.01Princeton University0.461.7%1st Place
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9.11Fordham University1.625.1%1st Place
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13.52Syracuse University0.191.6%1st Place
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10.14Old Dominion University1.813.5%1st Place
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14.64Hampton University-0.100.7%1st Place
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15.62Rochester Institute of Technology-0.480.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 11.6% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Lars Osell | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Will Murray | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 3.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 9.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 17.3% | 12.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 21.2% | 25.2% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 19.3% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.