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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.79vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.04vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+2.37vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.84vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38+0.81vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.46+7.09vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62+2.21vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.43+0.97vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.67vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-2.24vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.59-2.34vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.26vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University0.19+0.52vs Predicted
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14Hampton University-0.10+0.63vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.73-3.41vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.12-5.68vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.42-9.75vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.48-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.4%1st Place
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6.04U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.8%1st Place
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5.37Georgetown University2.7512.8%1st Place
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8.84SUNY Maritime College1.885.6%1st Place
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5.81Cornell University2.3810.5%1st Place
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13.09Princeton University0.461.4%1st Place
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9.21Fordham University1.624.8%1st Place
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8.97Webb Institute1.434.2%1st Place
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10.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.1%1st Place
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7.76George Washington University1.827.0%1st Place
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8.66Old Dominion University1.595.1%1st Place
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7.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.6%1st Place
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13.52Syracuse University0.191.7%1st Place
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14.63Hampton University-0.101.0%1st Place
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11.59Christopher Newport University0.732.8%1st Place
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10.32Drexel University1.123.0%1st Place
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7.25University of Pennsylvania2.426.5%1st Place
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15.75Rochester Institute of Technology-0.480.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Green | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 10.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Lars Osell | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 16.7% | 13.9% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 21.6% | 22.8% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 4.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 44.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.