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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.75vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+3.74vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+2.59vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.35vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.82+2.93vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.71vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62+1.99vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88+0.93vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.46+4.08vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.59-1.18vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.12-0.85vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.73-0.22vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.60-7.15vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-3.29vs Predicted
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15Hampton University-0.10-0.36vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University0.19-2.39vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.43-8.12vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.48-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.2%1st Place
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5.74Cornell University2.3812.2%1st Place
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5.59Georgetown University2.7511.0%1st Place
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7.35University of Pennsylvania2.427.0%1st Place
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7.93George Washington University1.826.9%1st Place
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7.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.2%1st Place
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8.99Fordham University1.624.3%1st Place
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8.93SUNY Maritime College1.884.9%1st Place
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13.08Princeton University0.461.6%1st Place
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8.82Old Dominion University1.595.2%1st Place
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10.15Drexel University1.123.0%1st Place
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11.78Christopher Newport University0.732.4%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.4%1st Place
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10.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.5%1st Place
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14.64Hampton University-0.100.9%1st Place
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13.61Syracuse University0.191.6%1st Place
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8.88Webb Institute1.434.8%1st Place
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15.5Rochester Institute of Technology-0.480.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 12.2% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.0% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 10.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 4.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 20.8% | 25.2% |
| Alexa Whitman | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 18.4% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.