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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.82+6.58vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.80vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+2.69vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.62vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.62+3.84vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.75-0.81vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.88+1.60vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42-0.78vs Predicted
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9Rochester Institute of Technology-0.48+5.87vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-2.51vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.75vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.81-2.16vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.12-3.17vs Predicted
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14Hampton University-0.10-0.16vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.73-3.89vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.46-3.51vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.43-8.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.58George Washington University1.826.2%1st Place
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5.8U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.9%1st Place
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5.69Cornell University2.3812.7%1st Place
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
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8.84Fordham University1.624.8%1st Place
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5.19Georgetown University2.7513.6%1st Place
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8.6SUNY Maritime College1.885.1%1st Place
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7.22University of Pennsylvania2.426.5%1st Place
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14.87Rochester Institute of Technology-0.480.9%1st Place
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7.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.8%1st Place
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10.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.0%1st Place
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9.84Old Dominion University1.813.6%1st Place
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9.83Drexel University1.123.6%1st Place
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13.84Hampton University-0.100.9%1st Place
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11.11Christopher Newport University0.732.9%1st Place
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12.49Princeton University0.461.1%1st Place
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8.74Webb Institute1.435.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 12.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.6% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 20.0% | 46.4% |
| Will Murray | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 22.1% | 27.6% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 4.5% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 12.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.