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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+4.23vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.43+6.92vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.86vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.03vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+4.91vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.53vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+0.69vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38-2.40vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.81+0.84vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.12-0.09vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.50vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.46+0.52vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.49vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.73-2.67vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.48-0.12vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.62-7.12vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.10-3.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.23Georgetown University2.7512.3%1st Place
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8.92Webb Institute1.434.2%1st Place
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5.86U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.9%1st Place
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7.03University of Pennsylvania2.428.0%1st Place
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9.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.4%1st Place
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5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.6%1st Place
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7.69George Washington University1.826.5%1st Place
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5.6Cornell University2.3812.4%1st Place
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9.84Old Dominion University1.814.5%1st Place
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9.91Drexel University1.123.5%1st Place
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7.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.1%1st Place
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12.52Princeton University0.461.1%1st Place
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8.51SUNY Maritime College1.885.2%1st Place
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11.33Christopher Newport University0.732.2%1st Place
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14.88Rochester Institute of Technology-0.480.5%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University1.624.4%1st Place
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13.92Hampton University-0.101.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 12.3% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 2.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 1.6% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 1.9% |
| Will Murray | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 17.9% | 10.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 4.9% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 16.6% | 48.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 23.4% | 26.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.