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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.42vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.71+5.46vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.57+6.88vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.96+2.80vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.84+5.79vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.28-0.46vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+1.96vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+2.03vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.47+1.72vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.98-3.03vs Predicted
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11Drexel University0.47+1.16vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.40-6.77vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.41-0.48vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.27-5.12vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology1.06-5.05vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.71-8.08vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.60-5.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.778.1%1st Place
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7.46University of Pennsylvania1.717.3%1st Place
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9.88Old Dominion University1.573.6%1st Place
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6.8Cornell University1.969.0%1st Place
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10.79Princeton University0.842.5%1st Place
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5.54U. S. Naval Academy2.2811.9%1st Place
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8.96St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.5%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.994.2%1st Place
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10.72Hampton University1.473.5%1st Place
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6.97Fordham University1.987.4%1st Place
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12.16Drexel University0.472.5%1st Place
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5.23Georgetown University2.4013.9%1st Place
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12.52SUNY Maritime College0.411.7%1st Place
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8.88George Washington University1.275.2%1st Place
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9.95Rochester Institute of Technology1.064.0%1st Place
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7.92Webb Institute1.717.6%1st Place
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11.77Christopher Newport University0.602.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Honig | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.2% |
| Winborne Majette | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Asher Green | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% |
| Jack Welburn | 11.9% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Iain Shand | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 19.4% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 13.9% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 23.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Cameron Turner | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% |
| Calvin Schmid | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.