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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.28+4.46vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.98+4.69vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+6.00vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.53vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.40+0.22vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.96+0.93vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.41+5.36vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.27+0.96vs Predicted
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9Drexel University0.47+3.24vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.71-2.40vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.84-0.20vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-1.76vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-3.48vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.71-5.85vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.60-3.34vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.47-5.33vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology1.06-7.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.46U. S. Naval Academy2.2813.7%1st Place
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6.69Fordham University1.989.2%1st Place
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9.0St. Mary's College of Maryland1.765.3%1st Place
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7.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.4%1st Place
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5.22Georgetown University2.4013.9%1st Place
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6.93Cornell University1.967.3%1st Place
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12.36SUNY Maritime College0.412.4%1st Place
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8.96George Washington University1.275.8%1st Place
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12.24Drexel University0.471.5%1st Place
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7.6University of Pennsylvania1.717.0%1st Place
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10.8Princeton University0.842.1%1st Place
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10.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.5%1st Place
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9.52Old Dominion University1.574.4%1st Place
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8.15Webb Institute1.715.9%1st Place
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11.66Christopher Newport University0.602.5%1st Place
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10.67Hampton University1.473.9%1st Place
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9.99Rochester Institute of Technology1.064.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 13.7% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 13.9% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Winborne Majette | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 21.9% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Iain Shand | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 18.4% |
| Benjamin Honig | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Asher Green | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| Calvin Schmid | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Aston Atherton | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 16.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% |
| Cameron Turner | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.